Fri Mar 28 17:36:19 2025
(*2405d2f7*):: I don’t doubt or disagree with that. From my perspective it seems like when I get you in a spot where you have to confront some view you may not be happy about – you choose an out that is related but not by much. Often some personal or anecdotal. I assume you believe that anecdotal thinking is something to avoid when there is far more info available? Or are you a total hunch/in my gut sorta guy?
(*b4c3b42a*):: anecdata is data. it’s not perfect data, but it’s not nothing.
(*2405d2f7*):: Yea, but when you put it forth while ignoring better data because it just makes you feel better.. then you have a big problem. Well, maybe not a big problem as it will make you happier but you’re far more likely to just be flat out wrong.
(*b4c3b42a*):: Consensus doesn’t inherently make data better. If your data demands immunity from methodological criticism, it’s probably about as solid as the magic practiced by a trickster who refuses to allow empirical, scientific evaluation of his methodology, like mind readers, spiritual mediums, and psychics. That same standard (“no, you’re not allowed to ask that question!”) being applied to the talking points of climate skepticism doesn’t heuristically raise any red flags for you?
(*2405d2f7*):: We were talking about ancedotal data not whatever “consensus” means. Consensus is a fairly loaded word now as it can so readily be misapplied. I still need to do the probablistic analysis of how likely it would be for the climate change to be randomly occurring vs the consensus of being mostly manmade.
(*2405d2f7*):: Sure there is a possibility of anything but we all makes judgements at some point to live our lives. THere is a chance there is a monster under your bed. Does that mean you should go look there? Does it mean you should be worried?
THe basic physics of climate change thoroughly understood. This isn’t like vaccines or something … the basic physics are thoroughly understood. It may still be very difficult to model the outcome on a planetary level but that doesn’t really throw into question the underlying physics laws/principles/whatever.
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